Analysing the Sauron theories: Least likely to most likely

 Following some interesting discussions on TwitterI wanted to summarise my thoughts on the main theories around who (or where) Sauron is during what we have seen of Rings of Power (up to episode five).

Spoiler warning!

 

The Dweller (Cult of Melkor) – This seemed to be entirely based on the image from the trailer of Bridie Sisson looking shady. Think it is clear at this point that she is not Sauron

 

Halbrand: The basis for this theory is his willingness to sacrifice his fellows on the raft in episode two, his affinity for smithcraft and his fighting skill. Plus, Charlie Vickers is an attractive man and the whole ‘sexy Sauron’ thing has caught on. This theory is more likely than the previous one, but I do not like it for several reasons. What is Sauron doing on the ocean with just a couple of humans for company? Surely Sauron has the power to fight of a ‘fish-dragon.’ Also, the motivations for Sauron do not seem right here. For this theory to have any chance of working we must assume that Sauron is repentant at the time the show is set. This simply does not fit what we are seeing elsewhere in the show, there are clear plots in motion that were set up prior to the end of the first age and these are ready to bear fruit (apologies to the Great Tree of Lindon for the careless pun). As for his fighting ability and smithcraft both are much more likely to be related to his previous life. HE says he is running from the Orcs in the Southlands. Surviving the orcs would need skill with weapons and a level of ferocity. This would also have left its mark on his character making outbursts like the one in episode three more likely. As for his affinity for smithcraft again I do not see why this makes him Sauron (by this logic Celebrimbor- if he were not an established character- is just as likely to be Sauron). Again, a simpler explanation would be that he and his people had to smithy to survive in the Southlands, and he showed an affinity for the craft.

 

The Stranger: I would have ranked this below Halbrand prior to episode five but a couple of things that happened in this episode made me question things again. The character is a deliberate mystery, there have been hints to his character that can be interpreted as showing him to be good or moving towards evil. The first is the fire without heat which occurs close enough to Galadriel and her team’s journey to what is presumably the ruins of Utumno to clearly be trying to recall that in our minds. In Utumno the Torches give out no heat due to the evil of the place and the fire around the Stranger also gives out no heat. This is either a clear piece of foreshadowing or a deliberate red herring. The next hint we see is the death of the fireflies after he uses them to show the constellation, he needs to find but again this is ambiguous as to foreshadowing or red herring and until we know his identity is hard to say for certain. Now we get several clear indications that he has a good nature particularly in his interactions with Nori which led me to discount him prior to episode five. There were a few things in episode five that reawakened my curiosity, firstly the ‘cult of Melkor’ people are clearly looking for him and know that he is searching for that specific constellation, we do not know why, either they want to forestall him or to find their master. This brought back to my mind Waldreg’s statement that the Starfall was the signal for Sauron’s return. The biggest question I had was how did Waldreg hear this? And, if the Stranger is not Sauron, how did Sauron know it would happen. It is likely that Waldreg learnt the prophecy from the cult of Sauron who may have been visiting the Southlands secretly for many years. As for How Sauron knew the answer is fairly easy if the stranger is Sauron but becomes harder to explain if he is not. It is entirely plausible that as a Maiar Sauron may have some precognizant capabilities and ‘saw’ the Starfall in a vision, but this explanation does not feel entirely right.

 

Adar: The arguments for Adar being Sauron are fairly simple, he is leading the Orcs and they show him reverence that would be reserved for a god. We know Sauron did not allow those in his service to use his right name, so it is conceivable they refer to him as father in a reverential manner similar to how Christians refer to God as The Father. There are also hints in his dialogue that his plan involves raising himself to ‘the level of the gods’ and he does appear to be acting entirely for his own motives yet orchestrating a plan that forms an essential part in the forging of the one ring the kickstarting of Orodruin into the Volcano known as Mount Doom. The next piece of ‘evidence’ is highly obscure and may just be reading deeply into something that ultimately had no meaning. It comes from a fascinating twitter thread (https://twitter.com/crash22crash/status/1560396455373934594). The thread looks at a particular image of the orcs and how it bears a striking resemblance to The Supper at Emmaus by Caravaggio which depicts Jesus post-resurrection visiting his disciples unrecognized. They suggest that this suggest that Sauron may be hiding in plain sight among the Orcs as Adar. There are other artworks posted by those associated with the show, so I encourage the reading of the thread. Ultimately the biggest reason against Adar being Sauron is that it would feel rather anticlimactic to set up the mystery of who is Sauron only to have it be the character already leading the orcs.

 

Hiding in Eregion: The first major hint given that Sauron is in Eregion was Celebrimbor’s insistence that he needed his new forge ready by spring. This suggested a great urgency which may be coming from his buddy Annatar. I am less convinced of this than many after episode five, I still think it the most likely but some of the plot points revealed in the episode made me question whether the most Annatar is the most likely explanation for his urgence.

We learn in episode five that the Great tree is dying. This is being taken very seriously by the elves, it was why Gil-Galad sent Galadriel away and why they are revealed not only to need a workforce to build the forge, but they believe Mithril will save them from their fate. The first question to ask is why do the Elves think the death of the Great tree is such an evil omen? This goes beyond the obviously evil looking decay we have seen on the leaves. The big parallel here is the death of the two trees we saw in episode one. It needs to be remembered that the prologue is almost certainly told from the viewpoint of an unreliable narrator but from the Elves point of view it is not unreasonable to view the destruction of the two trees as the inciting incident that caused them to lose Valinor (this is not supposed to be the ‘true’ story just their interpretation). So, you can see why when the Great Tree of Lindon is so clearly paralleling the death of Laurelin- almost certainly directly caused by Sauron- the elves start to get extremely worried.

Some have found their fear that this indicates the waning of their spirit strange conclusion, and I would agree, but the question remains is the conclusion the work of Sauron or does it come from a fear of history repeating itself. The clear parallels to the destruction of the trees of Valinor has made me wonder if the storyline in the show is that the great tree was a scion of Laurelin as Galathelion was of Telperion.

Now the argument from those who most strongly believe Sauron is in Eregion is that this fear is stoked by Sauron and that is why they become desperate for mithril and cling to an abstract legendary tale for their hope of salvation. I have no issue with this interpretation, but it is not the only one that fits what we have been told. If the elves are truly afraid of history repeating itself, it makes sense that they might try sending the warmonger to Valinor to avoid the path Feanor led them down. Now if my theory about the great tree’s relation to Laurelin is correct it is entirely plausible to suppose that like the tree in Numenor the Great tree decaying so severely would be taken as a grievous portent. What we see is the Elves reacting to their greatest fear (interestingly mirroring that of Numenor). As for the urgency of needing everything done by Spring this could be how long they suspect the tree will survive given the rate the decay is spreading. Despite this thee thought process for the Elves is likely the same whether influenced by Annatar or not but it is important to bear in mind that the chain of thoughts is not dependent on Sauron being in Eregion already especially as the indication is that these fears began in Lindon not Eregion.

 

If you have made it this far I will give a small bonus of my views on the % liklihood of these being Sauron. Please note I decided to adjust these percentages to have them roughly add up to 100 (my science background made me do it!):

The Dweller - 0%

Halbrand - <1%

The Stranger -10-20% (prior to episode five this would have been 5%)

Adar - 20-40% (I freely admit that my judgement on this is clouded by my fondness for obscure references such as the painting)

Hiding in Eregion - 40-50% (would have been aroughly 65% last week)